Spot order market transactions weakened again, and lead price trend may still be trapped within a range [SMM Morning Lead Meeting Summary]

Futures Market Overview:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,984/mt, fluctuating rangebound during the Asian session. It briefly touched a high of $1,994/mt in the European session before bulls reduced their positions, causing LME lead to dive to a low of $1,955/mt. It partially recovered towards the close, ending at $1,978.5/mt, down 0.4%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2507 contract opened at a high of 16,895 yuan/mt. After opening, bears increased their positions, and SHFE lead fluctuated downward, reaching a low of 16,820 yuan/mt. It closed at 16,835 yuan/mt, down 0.33%.

》Click to view SMM historical spot lead price quotes

Macro Aspects:

US Secretary of Commerce Lutnick expressed hope to reach trade agreements with most major partners before the tariff suspension expires this summer. China and the ten ASEAN countries have fully completed negotiations for the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0. Eight departments, including the National Financial Regulatory Administration of China, jointly issued "Several Measures to Support Financing for Small and Micro Enterprises," supporting eligible small and micro enterprises to list on the New Third Board and standardizing their growth for listing on the Beijing Stock Exchange. The General Office of the Shanghai Municipal People's Government issued the "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption in Shanghai," promoting automobile consumption, adding subsidies for the purchase of new digital products such as mobile phones, tablets, and smartwatches (bands), and increasing support for green home appliance, furniture, and home improvement consumption.

Spot Market Fundamentals:

SHFE lead maintained a consolidation trend, with suppliers quoting prices in line with the market. During this period, the quoted prices for cargoes self-picked up from electrolytic lead smelters in major producing areas were at discounts of 30 yuan/mt to premiums of 100 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead price ex-factory. In the secondary lead sector, smelters had poor enthusiasm for shipping, with some halting shipments. Secondary refined lead was quoted at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price ex-factory, with a few regions quoting at premiums. Downstream enterprises had average purchase willingness, and spot market transactions once again weakened.

Inventory: On May 21, LME lead inventory increased by 36,375 mt to 282,125 mt. As of May 19, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations tracked by SMM reached 59,100 mt, up 12,000 mt from May 12 and up 3,100 mt from May 15.

》Click to view SMM Metal Industry Chain Database

Today's Lead Price Forecast:

Smelters are facing tight raw material supplies, with lead concentrate prices showing an upward trend and scrap battery procurement prices remaining high. Smelters are under significant operational pressure, with some enterprises significantly lowering their scrap battery procurement quotes yesterday. Although some recyclers are selling off due to fear of price declines, arrivals remain limited. Meanwhile, downstream lead-acid battery orders are poor, and the willingness to procure lead ingots is weak. The increasing uncertainty in the international economic environment, coupled with the drag from spot market performance, may keep lead prices trapped within a range.